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5/17/09
Robert Schussel has a Ph.D in psychology and is a professional market researcher
Critique of Utility User Tax(UUT) Survey
Conducted for the City of Vallejo by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (FMM&A)
PURPOSE
The purpose of this document is to provide a critique of the methodology and some of the assumptions used for interpreting the data.
BACKGROUND
FMM&A conducted a study among 400 City of Vallejo voters in April 2009 .The purpose of the study was to measure voters" attitudes toward City government and a potential ballot measure to modernize the city's existing User Utility Tax Ordinance".
The sample consisted of 400 voters who said they were "likely" to vote in the November 2009 Vallejo election. The maximum sampling error was stated as+/-4.0% for the full sample (and +/-5.82% for the two subgroups of 200).
METHODOLOGICAL CONCERNS 1) Comparisons to an earlier study conducted for the city are made but no evidence is provided that the samples were collected and screened in exactly the same manner. Nor that the wording of the questions being compared are identical.
Comparing differences/trends should NEVER be done if the samples and questions are not identical.
Comparisons of the samples characteristics (demographics) for both studies need to be provided.
2) A critical survey question was NOT asked:
"How many times have you voted in the past X years?"
Results from the city's prior study revealed this to be a critical question as those who vote more often are less likely to vote for new /maintaining taxes. The exclusion of this question significantly limits one ability to interpret the findings in this Study.
3)The sampling errors reported are at the 90% confidence level instead of the normally used 95% confidence level.
For the total sample, the maximum sample error at the 95% confidence level is +/-4.9% versus +/-4.1% at the 90% level.
For the subsample of N=200 the differences are even greater. At the 95% level +/- 6.9% and +/-5.8% at the 90% level of confidence.
4) Changes/differences are reported but in almost every instance the difference is not statistically significant at either the 90% or 95% level of confidence.
5) High levels of respondents answering Don't Know or refused were not noted for several questions.
Caution should be used when interpreting questions who have 10% or more of the respondents answering Don't Know(DK) .At a minimum high DK responses need to be noted.
6) Percent responding Yes or No to UUT measures are presented as absolutes. In fact those leaning in the positive direction are assumed to be for the measure.
Questions about key findings
(Findings from the report by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates are displayed in italics.)
1) Prior to hearing background information about the measure one-half of Vallejo voters support a UUT modernization measure.
The statement made is misleading as 18% said probably yes and 8% are leaning.
2) Support for the measure increases if it includes a reduction of existing rates
The increase mentioned--6% is NOT statistically significant and could be due to sampling error.
3) Providing additional background information further increases support.
While levels of support increased no mention was made that 11% responded DK (Don't Know) and 10% were leaning YES.
4) Vallejo voters are concerned about the direction of the City
It is stated that this concern increased from 54% in 2007 to 64% in 2009. No mention is made whether identical wording was used nor was the fact that 18% of the respondents in 2009 said Don't Know (DK). To be able to interpret the findings the 2007 level of DK needs to be provided.
5)Vallejo voters are particularly concerned about jobs, the local economy and the City's budget deficit and bankruptcy.
Concerns about foreclosures were also very high
6) Vallejo voters resist the idea of cutting more services
This is an extremely misleading statement. 6 of the 12 services rated (tree trimming etc) were more likely to be seen as less critical to retain. All Public safety services were seen as more critical to retain.
7)Categorical opposition to local tax increases appears to be declining.
The statement is incorrect. The decline of 5% is not statistically significant and may be attributed to sampling fluctuations.
Conclusion
By not considering how often respondents vote, the researchers have limited the usability of their study.
It is impossible to determine whether comparisons to the prior study done for the city are valid until more information is provided.
The charts below summarize the data in the study
| Question 9 |
Sample
Size |
Much
Better |
Somewhat
Better |
No
Difference |
Somewhat
Worse |
Much
Worse |
DK/refuse |
Average
5 point
Scale |
| Your personal financial situation |
200 |
7% |
34% |
34% |
17% |
5% |
4% |
3.22 |
| The local economy |
200 |
3% |
39% |
18% |
26% |
11% |
4% |
2.97 |
| The City's Budget |
200 |
2% |
31% |
18% |
22% |
18% |
9% |
2.75 |
| Question 3 |
Sample Size |
Excellent |
Good |
Only Fair |
Poor |
DK |
Average
4 point scale |
| f) Overall job Fire Dept |
200 |
16% |
50% |
16% |
8% |
9% |
2.82 |
| c)Overall job Police Dept |
200 |
9% |
46% |
28% |
12% |
5% |
2.55 |
| a)Overall quality of life |
400 |
4% |
36% |
43% |
16% |
1% |
2.28 |
| d) Overall quality of city services |
200 |
4% |
33% |
40% |
17% |
5% |
2.26 |
| b)Overall job City Government |
200 |
2% |
10% |
38% |
46% |
4% |
1.67 |
| e)Overall job city council |
400 |
0 |
13% |
34% |
46% |
8% |
1.65 |
| g)Management of budget |
200 |
0 |
7% |
20% |
60% |
12% |
1.39 |
| Question 7 |
Sample
Size |
Extremely
Serious Problem |
Very
Serious
Problem |
Somewhat
Serious
Problem |
Not too
Serious
Problem |
DK |
Average
4 point scale |
| a) City Budget Deficit |
200 |
54% |
31% |
9% |
2% |
3% |
3.43 |
| i) Jobs &local economy |
200 |
48% |
40% |
8% |
3% |
2% |
3.34 |
| h) Vallejo Bankruptcy |
200 |
47% |
40% |
8% |
3% |
1% |
3.34 |
| b) Foreclosures in community |
200 |
42% |
36% |
16% |
1% |
5% |
3.25 |
| k) State budget cuts to city services |
200 |
35% |
39% |
18% |
3% |
4% |
3.12 |
| l) Gangs/youth violence |
200 |
34% |
39% |
18% |
7% |
2% |
3.02 |
| c)Waste/inefficiency local government |
200 |
35% |
30% |
21% |
7% |
6% |
3.00 |
| d) Quality Public education |
200 |
33% |
32% |
20% |
7% |
8% |
2.99 |
| o) loss of Police and Firefighters |
200 |
34% |
36% |
16% |
10% |
5% |
2.98 |
| e)Crime |
200 |
26% |
44% |
21% |
7% |
3% |
2.91 |
| f) Condition streets& roads |
200 |
31% |
28% |
28% |
13% |
0% |
2.77 |
| j) Amount pay in city taxes |
200 |
19% |
33% |
22% |
16% |
10% |
2.61 |
| n) Quality of police officers |
200 |
17% |
19% |
31% |
27% |
6% |
2.28 |
| m)Traffic/congestion on streets/roads |
200 |
8% |
24% |
37% |
30% |
1% |
2.10 |
| g)Quality fire/paramedic service |
200 |
11% |
16% |
26% |
36% |
12% |
2.02 |
| Question 8 |
Sample Size |
Very
Positive |
Somewhat
Positive |
Neutral |
somewhat
Negative |
Very
Negative |
DK/refuse |
Average 5 point scale |
| a) Your personal financial situation |
200 |
26% |
34% |
18% |
14% |
6% |
1% |
3.61 |
| b Local economy |
200 |
3% |
13% |
9% |
41% |
32% |
1% |
2.12 |
| c) City Budget |
200 |
1% |
5% |
8% |
28% |
50% |
7% |
1.68 |
| Question 10 |
Sample Size |
Strongly
Agree |
Somewhat
Agree |
Somewhat
Disagree |
Strongly
Disagree |
DK |
Average 5 point scale |
Reversed
Value |
b)City doesn't need more money/
just need to spend more efficiently |
200 |
50% |
26% |
10% |
9% |
5% |
3.23 |
|
c) Recently read about City budget
situation |
200 |
49% |
24% |
8% |
12% |
7% |
3.18 |
|
h) Trust City to properly manage
our tax dollars |
200 |
5% |
21% |
23% |
47% |
3% |
1.83 |
3.17 |
a)Maintain Fire/Paramedic top priority
even if means raising taxes |
200 |
40% |
30% |
11% |
15% |
4% |
2.99 |
|
e)Maintain police services top priority
even if means raising taxes |
200 |
37% |
33% |
13% |
14% |
3% |
2.96 |
|
f) No budget crisis in Vallejo
it is just mismanaged |
200 |
28% |
32% |
17% |
19% |
4% |
2.72 |
|
g)Taxes in Vallejo too high
I will vote against any more taxes |
200 |
19% |
20% |
28% |
26% |
6% |
2.34 |
|
d)Since Bankruptcy City has been
improving its financial situation |
200 |
10% |
24% |
19% |
22% |
25% |
2.29 |
|
| Question 11 |
Sample Size |
Strong
Support |
Somewhat
Support |
Somewhat
Oppose |
Strongly
Oppose |
DK |
Average
4 point scale |
| d) Ensure all revenue spent on city services |
200 |
60% |
25% |
6% |
5% |
5% |
3.46 |
f) All expenditures subject to
annual independent audit |
200 |
55% |
30% |
5% |
6% |
4% |
3.40 |
| h) continue UUT with no increase in tax rate |
200 |
49% |
27% |
9% |
5% |
10% |
3.33 |
| b) Require voter approved rate increases |
200 |
52% |
21% |
10% |
11% |
6% |
3.21 |
g) Modernize UUT on telecommunications
/video services to respond to changes
in federal law |
200 |
36% |
36% |
6% |
11% |
11% |
3.09 |
c)Modernize UUT on telecommunications/
video services so all taxpayers treated equally |
200 |
37% |
25% |
9% |
17% |
13% |
2.93 |
e) allow UUT to be applied to new/
developing Telecommunications in future |
200 |
29% |
36% |
15% |
14% |
6% |
2.85 |
a)Allow UUT to be applied to newer
telecommunications like texting |
200 |
22% |
20% |
15% |
34% |
10% |
2.33 |
| Question 12 |
Sample Size |
Completely
Acceptable |
Somewhat
Acceptable |
Not
Acceptable |
DK |
Average
on 4 point scale |
| c) Slow down 911 response time |
200 |
5% |
11% |
77% |
7% |
1.23 |
| l) Close fire stations |
200 |
5% |
13% |
81% |
1% |
1.23 |
| b)Reduce number police patrolling streets |
200 |
6% |
14% |
77% |
3% |
1.27 |
| i)Reduce number of 911 operators |
200 |
5% |
17% |
73% |
6% |
1.28 |
| f)Reduce number Firefighters/Paramedic |
200 |
7% |
17% |
72% |
4% |
1.32 |
| h)Reduce traffic enforcement/safety patrols |
200 |
6% |
20% |
70% |
4% |
1.33 |
| a) Reduce pothole repair/street Maintenance |
200 |
16% |
33% |
49% |
3% |
1.66 |
| k) Reduce nuisance/code enforcement |
200 |
15% |
29% |
42% |
15% |
1.69 |
| g)Reduce sidewalk/ally maintenance |
200 |
17% |
38% |
40% |
4% |
1.76 |
d)Eliminate City Economic Development
service |
200 |
17% |
38% |
29% |
16% |
1.86 |
| j) Eliminate tree trimming |
200 |
22% |
39% |
35% |
4% |
1.86 |
| e)Reduce City Hall Hours |
200 |
32% |
48% |
17% |
3% |
2.15 |
| Question 13 |
Sample Size |
Very Convincing |
Somewhat
Convincing |
Not
Convincing |
Don't
Believe |
DK |
Average on
4 point scale |
e)Down economy causes crime rise.
If UUT not continued Vallejo may need to
cut more Police over 40 cut. Now is NOT the
time to reduce Police force. |
200 |
36% |
31% |
22% |
7% |
3% |
2.93 |
g)Includes Audits/publishing expenditures
Safeguards ensure funds spent efficiently
effectively as promised. |
200 |
31% |
39% |
20% |
8% |
2% |
2.87 |
f) UUT protects local funding so that can't
be taken away by State/Federal. Ensures
monies spent locally to keep Vallejo
financially stable. |
200 |
38% |
27% |
21% |
11% |
3% |
2.84 |
j) CA billion $ deficit will cut City services
Passing local measure will maintain
police, fire ,911 etc without raising tax rate |
200 |
30% |
40% |
18% |
9% |
3% |
2.85 |
c) Economy put way of life at risk.
Further cuts will effect home value more
Can stabilize Vallejo financial/property
values if pass measure |
400 |
32% |
34% |
22% |
8% |
3% |
2.85 |
b)Modernizes UUT to include telecommun
technologies that didn't exist when 1st
introduced. It ensures taxpayers are treated
same and everyone pays fair share |
400 |
28% |
41% |
23% |
6% |
2% |
2.87 |
i) Seconds count/if rejected City may have
to make deep cuts fire/paramedic--
in addition to 2 stations closed last year.
Dramatically slowing response time |
200 |
30% |
32% |
26% |
8% |
4% |
2.79 |
k) 150 cities have UUT & dozens have
passed measures like this one to
update/modernize UUT & maintain
funding for essential services |
200 |
22% |
41% |
23% |
8% |
6% |
2.73 |
d)Unless measure passed City loses $5M
force even more drastic cuts |
200 |
23% |
38% |
21% |
11% |
6% |
2.67 |
a)Measure will NOT increase existing tax
rate, needed to update/modernize City
tax structure to continue vital services
,police ,fire, potholes |
400 |
27% |
34% |
21% |
14% |
3% |
2.63 |
h) If not approved massive hole in budget
City can cut all maintenance & still not
make up shortfall |
200 |
20% |
39% |
25% |
14% |
2% |
2.52 |
| Question 15 |
Sample
Size |
Very Convincing |
Somewhat
Convincing |
Not
Convincing |
Don't
Believe |
DK |
Average |
b)With taxes, garbage rates etc increasing
now is not the time to expand UUT on
hard-working residents |
400 |
39% |
29% |
23% |
7% |
1% |
2.95 |
a)City has demonstrated poor financial
decision making by declaring Bankruptcy.
Should pass new taxes that give more money to mismanage |
400 |
37% |
29% |
26% |
6% |
2% |
2.93 |
f)Vote No. City can cut wasteful spending/
high administrative salaries to make up loss this unnecessary tax |
200 |
37% |
29% |
24% |
9% |
2% |
2.86 |
g)2/3 cites don't force people to pay tax for
utilities. Vallejo should go with the majority |
200 |
28% |
33% |
27% |
8% |
4% |
2.76 |
c) measure is a trick. City trying hide that
it is a tax by calling it modernization of UUT |
400 |
31% |
24% |
26% |
12% |
7% |
2.67 |
e)UUT/others prevents City from attracting
business. Reject this tax--it will make Vallejo more business friendly/stimulate local economy. |
200 |
21% |
35% |
28% |
10% |
6% |
2.61 |
d) vote No/eliminate. Reduce high salaries
/benefits for Police/Fire to make up
for loss of this tax |
200 |
23% |
26% |
39% |
8% |
4% |
2.58 |
| Demographics |
|
| Q1) Definitely vote in next election |
82% |
| Q18 How long lived in Vallejo |
|
| 10 years or less |
24% |
| 11 to 30 |
43% |
| 31+ |
32% |
| Q19 Own home |
83% |
| Q20 children under 18 at home |
22% |
| Education |
|
| High school or less |
21% |
| Some college |
32% |
| College Grad or more |
45% |
| Age |
|
| Under 40 |
13% |
| 40-54 |
30% |
| 55 to 64 |
25% |
| 65+ |
27% |
| refused |
5% |
| Race |
|
| White |
60% |
| African American |
14% |
| Asian |
8% |
| Hispanic |
6% |
| Other |
12% |
| Gender --Female |
55% |
| Absentee voter |
58% |
| Political Party |
|
| Democrat |
66% |
| Republican |
20% |
| Other |
2% |
| Declined |
12% |
| Question2-Vallejo moving in right direction |
|
|
|
| Yes |
16% |
|
|
| No |
67% |
|
|
| DK |
18% |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
| Question Vote for UUT |
Version 4 |
Version 5 |
Version 6 |
| Definitely yes |
23% |
24% |
26% |
| Probably yes |
18% |
24% |
25% |
| lean yes |
8% |
8% |
10% |
| |
|
|
|
| Definitely no |
14% |
11% |
11% |
| Probably no |
10% |
11% |
11% |
| lean no |
7% |
7% |
5% |
| Don't know |
19% |
15% |
11% |
|
